Secret from a Knight’s Journal

Champion League Quarter-Final Draw

The result of the Champion League Quarter-Final Draw is out! Four out of the eight teams are English teams, and it is rather almost inevitable that two English teams might be drawn against each other. Nonetheless, it is exactly what has happened.

All I can say it is going to be an exciting Quarter-final match, and it’s worthwhile to watch all 4 matches. You’ll understand why I say that, but here is the outcome of the draw.

Arsenal and Liverpool are the only pair of English teams drawn against each other. Arsenal is currently on the top of the Premiership table, with Liverpool standing at fourth position, having little possibility of overhauling the leader to win the Premiership title. However, Liverpool’s European record has been phenomenal! Just a few years ago, Liverpool piped AC Milan to victory and last season sees Liverpool reaching the final. Any team would definitely want to avoid Liverpool in Europe. Thus, this match is definitely worth to watch!

The tie between AS Roma and Manchester United is also a must-watch match. Not long ago, Manchester United routed AS Roma mercilessly to the ground with a 7-1 aggregate victory. The pain must still have remained in the thoughts of the Italians, which is about to become a classic tie between the two. The two teams also met each other in this season’s Group stage as Manchester United emerged to clinch top spot. Many my favour Manchester United, but things can go either way; recall the FA Cup tie between Portsmouth and Manchester United and you will understand why.

Schalke 04 is less likely to walk past FC Barcelona, although the latter might have internal injury issues to deal with. Not the most recommended match among the four ties, but with the firepower of Thierry Henry, Ronaldinho, Messi and Deco, who would not want to catch their display in action.

The last tie between Chelsea and Fenerbahce is probably the least exciting one. Chelsea has recently found its confidence since the departure of the Special One, Jose Mourinho. Fenerbahce has also recently shown its prowess in the Europe stage; therefore the match can go either way. The difference between this tie and the other 3 ties is that this tie is likely to have less attacking philosophy when played against each other.

The following is the likelihood of the semi-final tie, assuming the team from the quarter-final managed to progress.

Fenerbahce is the only non-English team in the first lot. Presumably that it fails to beat Chelsea, an English team is guaranteed in the final place. The situation is reversed for the second lot; presumably Manchester United fails to negotiate the quarter-final round, a non-English team will feature in the final stage. The next few months of Champion League is going to be really exciting! Next, I’m going to give my analysis and see if it might turn out to be true, eventually.

In the first tie between Arsenal and Liverpool, I would definitely go for Liverpool; simply because of their experience and their recent form. Arsenal has been drawing for the last two matches, which see the point difference between the top two teams in the Premiership become point.

The 7-1 mauling of AS Roma by Manchester United might still strike fear in the player’s heart. Furthermore, the record between the two teams definitely favour the Red Devils. The fearsome strikers of Wayne Rooney and Carlos Tevez, combined with the speed and trickery of Nani and Cristiano Ronaldo at the wings are enough to send them through this round. Not to mention, the water-tight defence is well-guarded by the partnership of Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic. The experience of Paul Scholes, Ryan Giggs and Owen Hargreaves could prove beneficial when the times comes. With a bit of lady luck (which I feel is extremely important), Manchester United is likely to progress.

The third tie is likely to see FC Barcelona progress to the next round. The Spanish team could prove to be too strong for Schalke 04 to handle.

The match between Chelsea and Fenerbahce can go either way. Normally, Chelsea hardly falter in the Champion League stage against any European team; twice it was beaten by Liverpool in the Champion League stage. Hence, I would favour Chelsea to get through this level.

Hence, my prediction for the semi-final is

1. Liverpool v Chelsea
2. Barcelona v Manchester United

Now, do you see something interesting? Yes, it is Liverpool against Chelsea again! This is definitely going to be a classic match between the two English teams, once more, assuming my prediction comes true. On the other hand, Manchester United facing Barcelona is a clash of the titans.

Would you bet Liverpool to eliminate Chelsea from the Champion League again? Possible! They have done that before, and Liverpool have shown to be a big stage winner. I would predict Liverpool is going to be in the final again. As for the second tie, both teams are likely to field extremely strong players in the two home-and-away matches. Both have equal probabilities and likelihood to progress. Manchester United has been quite unlucky for all the times in the past couple of years, Barcelona has been unlucky as well. However, this year only one of them can be unlucky, for me, I believe Manchester United has the slightly better edge over Barcelona. However, I won’t bet every penny as the match can still go either way. For me, Manchester United to progress.

Ultimately, it is going to be a match between two English teams, and that is likely to bore the European stage. Manchester United versus Liverpool in the European Champion League final can happen once in a blue moon. Both teams have great records in Europe. Can Liverpool lift the trophy again? Can Manchester United relive the 1999’s dream of scoring the winner? I cannot give further prediction as of now. However, I believe this year is Manchester United’s dream realised.

Disclaimer: As there are biasness in predictions, but I suppose anything can happen in football.

Posted in English Football